Yesterday, we celebrated some birthdays that were on the holidays – Sesanga’s & Jaxon’s. While speaking to Jaxon, he mentioned his presents and a lot of them were One Direction related!

“If you love One Direction so much, why don’t you just go to their concert?” Zac called out.

“You could win tickets by shopping at Coles!” someone else called out.

Very nice suggestions. Particularly for Jaxon. But just how easy was it to win tickets to a One Direction concert?

The previous day, Caroline had read an article in the newspaper that said you were more likely to win tickets if you lived in NSW (because the concert was in Sydney and if someone in Victoria won, they would have to pay their own airfares and accommodation.)

She explained it to us like this: If there were 50 tickets to be won (for example), 25 of them would be won in NSW and the other 25 would be won in the other 7 states and territories of Australia.

We used a number line to show how much this actually was. We simplified 25/50 to be half (1/2). So half of all the tickets were located in NSW and the rest were somewhere else in Australia.

So, Jaxon’s chances of shopping at Coles and winning a ticket were getting smaller and smaller!

We went outside and used Miss Fraser’s Chalk Chance Line to stand where we thought the chance of the following statements would be.

- The chance of it raining tomorrow
- The chance of Geelong winning the AFL Grand Final
- After flipping a normal, two-sided coin 50 times and landing on Heads EVERY TIME, the chance of it landing on Tails the next time it was flipped

“But Miss Fraser, you didn’t say WHERE in the world it would rain! So I’m standing on ‘Certain’ because it will rain somewhere in the world tomorrow!” Bella yelled out.

And she was right. Miss Fraser didn’t say where in the world. These are called ‘variables’. Things that affect the chance of something happening. Variables are explained in some of our reflections in the slides below.

Isn’t it funny that our Chance maths lesson (which only happened by chance!) taught us so much!

## What chance do you think the statements Miss Fraser said have of happening? Have you ever heard of variables? What is the chance that you will comment on this post?!